The sweeping tariff package unveiled by the Trump administration is sending shockwaves through nearly every corner of the equity market, with particular impact on import-heavy sectors. Here's how it’s playing out:
Consumer Staples & Food
Tariff Heat in Beverages: A 25% levy on imported beer and aluminum packaging is squeezing margins for STZ and HEINY, while packaging suppliers BALL and CCK also face pressure.
Earnings in Focus:
Lamb Weston (LW) beat expectations as volume growth rebounded post-ERP transition.
Conagra (CAG) missed on top and bottom lines but rallied alongside defensive peers (GIS, KHC, KO, PEP).
Grocers KR and ACI hit 52-week highs.
Promotional activity remains rational, but ongoing cost pressures may test pricing power moving forward.
Retail, Apparel & Discounters
Tariffs on Asia (Vietnam 46%, Cambodia 49%, Bangladesh 37%, Indonesia 32%, China 54%) threaten cost structures for mass retailers (WMT, TGT, AMZN) and apparel players (NKE, PVH, AEO, RL).
Dollar stores (DLTR, FIVE) face exposure due to fixed pricing and deep China sourcing.
Luxury & Home Furnishings may suffer on higher ticket hesitation (RH, WSM, LZB).
Off-price retailers (TJX, ROST) are gaining favor as trade-down tailwinds build.
Energy & Industrials
Utilities (AEP, EXC, DTE) shine as investors seek dividend safety.
Chemicals and Solar suffer on tariff-linked cost increases; FSLR could be a long-term winner due to U.S. manufacturing.
Transportation & Distributors under pressure as trade friction raises cost and volume uncertainty (UPS, JBHT, GWW, FAST).
Financials
Banks tumble on recession fears and slower consumer spending. JPM notes earnings risk across consumer, lending, and advisory units.
Fintech & Cards: Spending growth slowed in late March, compounding pressure for PYPL, AXP, MA, V.
Healthcare
Pharma spared: Drugmakers caught a break as new tariffs excluded pharmaceuticals, lifting AZN, GSK, BMY.
Medtech pain: Device makers face 34% China and 20% EU tariffs, triggering concern for DXCM, BSX, ABT.
RXST cut its guidance sharply, citing demand and cost headwinds.
Technology & Semiconductors
Apple & Hardware: AAPL, DELL, and HPQ are under fire as tariff burdens threaten to wipe out billions in EBIT.
Data Centers: Reports of MSFT pausing global infrastructure builds spooked investors in SMCI, VRT, CEG.
Semis Slammed: The SOX index plunged over 8%. Broad-based losses hit NVDA, AMD, AVGO, with Mizuho highlighting tariff exposure on chips and components from China, Taiwan, and EU. U.S.-based names like INTC, TXN may emerge stronger.
Two Up, Two Down
Lamb Weston (LW): +10.0%
Molina Healthcare (MOH): +7.5%
Dell Technologies (DELL): -18.99%
Best Buy (BBY): -17.84%
Inside the Earnings Call - CAG
Summary Table - Conagra Brands
Theme | Q3 FY2025 | Q1–Q2 FY2025 | Q4 FY2024 |
Volume vs Price | Volume-led growth | Price-led recovery | Volume declines |
Margins | Pressured by transitory costs | Stable to slightly improving | Rebuilding after FY24 dip |
Supply Chain | Disruptions in frozen chicken/veg | Stable | Normalizing post-COVID |
Promotions | Low, rational — share gains anyway | Low, emphasized as strategy | Emphasized efficiency |
Outlook Tone | Cautiously defensive | Steady, confident | Recovering post-inflation shock |
Guidance | Held steady | Held steady | Initiated (cautiously optimistic) |
Tariffs & Macro | Greater concern, starting to see cost | Light mentions | N/A |
Takeaway for Investors
This quarter was about operational friction, not demand weakness. Consumers are buying the products — Conagra just had a harder time getting them on shelves. The company is:
Investing heavily in capacity and efficiency
Gaining share across key brands
Staying promotional-disciplined
Managing through macro noise (tariffs, inflation)
While the financials took a short-term hit, the underlying business looks stronger than it did in prior quarters. If supply issues are resolved by late FY2025 and margins recover, FY2026 could bring upside surprise.