Sector Snapshot
Sector Synopsis:
Markets continued to wrestle with the implications of tariff uncertainty, uneven earnings results, and shifting consumer behavior. Retail and staples diverged as pricing power faded for some while traffic and digital strength buoyed others. Energy names rode solid earnings and asset sales while solar rebounded selectively. Financials were crypto-driven with Bitcoin breaking $100K and Coinbase making a major acquisition. Healthcare struggled again under renewed drug pricing risk, while tech and industrials saw strength from AI infrastructure and defense orders. Investors remain focused on guidance and macro clarity as volatility remains elevated.
Consumer Staples & Restaurants:
Restaurant and beverage names were mixed. Dutch Bros impressed with continued margin upside, while Budweiser topped earnings estimates. Krispy Kreme missed on revenue and withdrew guidance, and Molson Coors trimmed its 2025 sales outlook. Tyson and Pilgrim’s Pride moved on a favorable UK/US trade deal. In staples, Clorox missed and cut forecasts amid tariff pressure. Tobacco stocks hit 52-week highs, while food producers like TreeHouse and Kellogg lagged.
Retailers:
Costco posted strong April results, with e-commerce and traffic both rising. Carvana blew past expectations and issued a bold long-term unit sales target. MercadoLibre saw across-the-board strength, particularly in Argentina. Coty and Crocs cut guidance amid macro and trade uncertainty. Shopify posted a wider loss than expected. Tapestry and Snap-on both raised full-year outlooks.
Energy, Industrials & Materials:
APA sold its Permian assets, while Occidental and Murphy posted solid earnings on production strength. Solar names bounced back on improved guidance from Sunnova and others. In chemicals, Nutrien missed but maintained its forecast; CF Industries and Mosaic both showed signs of stabilization. Axalta and Cleveland-Cliffs fell on volume concerns and CAPEX cuts. Boeing jumped on a $10B UK aircraft deal and further international orders.
Financials:
Coinbase announced a $2.9B acquisition of Deribit as Bitcoin surged above $100K, lifting crypto stocks broadly. Lemonade raised its premium and revenue guidance. Employment services provider Upwork beat expectations and raised 2026 guidance. GoodRx and Viatris delivered positive clinical and financial updates. Analysts flagged renewed pressure on drugmakers as Trump plans to revive "most favored nation" drug pricing policy.
Biotech & Pharma:
Healthcare names were hit again on fears of government pricing pressure. Vertex missed estimates, while Neurocrine, Novavax, and GoodRx topped. Altimmune presented new liver drug data. The FDA approved a new ovarian cancer combo therapy and a low-dose birth control patch. Vaccine developers sold off on the controversial FDA appointment of Vinay Prasad.
Healthcare Services & MedTech:
Hims & Hers posted 111% y/y revenue growth, and Inspira upgraded its guidance. Castle Biosciences beat and raised. Waters, IQVIA, and Zoetis also posted strong quarters. Teladoc and others recovered slightly after earlier guidance cuts.
Industrials, Aerospace & Defense:
Axon raised full-year guidance. Boeing jumped on a $10B UK aircraft deal. Maersk warned U.S.-China volumes dropped 30–40% in April, yet maintained its full-year guidance. Primoris beat and reiterated, while Hillenbrand was downgraded on tariff uncertainty.
Internet, Media & Telecom:
Coinbase, Riot, and CleanSpark rallied with crypto. Comcast spun off NBCUniversal’s cable networks into a new company called Versant. Shopify posted disappointing operating income. Family offices are staying active in AI deals, despite broader deal flow slowing.
Hardware, Software & Semiconductors:
AppLovin surged on a major beat and the sale of its gaming unit. Coherent followed peers in posting strong AI/networking results. Fortinet missed on services revenue but raised margins. Nvidia and other AI chip names rallied after the U.S. paused planned export restrictions. Skyworks posted solid results. Quantum computing names popped after upbeat reports from IonQ and Quantumscape.
Featured Articles
Eli Lilly Gaining Ground on Novo in Obesity Drug Market: With strong demand for Zepbound and pipeline momentum, Lilly is threatening Novo Nordisk’s dominance in the booming GLP-1 space.
Coinbase Buys Deribit in $2.9 Billion Deal: The acquisition of the leading crypto options exchange expands Coinbase’s footprint into derivatives as Bitcoin breaks back above $100K.
Buffett’s Occidental Investment Under Pressure: Occidental’s stock has lagged peers, even as production ramps up. Regulatory risk and capital discipline are in focus.
Bitcoin’s Rally Tops $100,000 Again: A surge in crypto enthusiasm returned amid lower regulatory risk and Coinbase’s acquisition news.
Family Offices Still Betting Big on AI: Despite a broad slowdown in private markets, interest in AI-related infrastructure and models remains strong among wealthy investors.
Tariffs Could Cost Companies Tens of Billions: With Apple, GM, and others sounding the alarm, new tariffs are forcing companies to reassess supply chains and guidance across sectors.
Inside the Earnings Call - ConocoPhillips (COP)
Q1 FY2025 Earnings Call Summary
Theme | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Production | 1.902M boe/d, flat y/y, up sequentially; strong Permian performance offset by Lower 48 weather issues | 1.902M boe/d; stable sequentially; Alaska and Eagle Ford solid | 1.806M boe/d; ramp-up in Lower 48, Alaska | 1.805M boe/d; up y/y on Lower 48 strength |
Earnings | Adj EPS $2.03 (vs. est. $2.05); operating cash flow $6.9B | Adj EPS $2.03; cash flow $6.6B | Adj EPS $2.16; solid FCF generation | Adj EPS $1.84; capex efficiency highlighted |
Capital Return | Returned $2.6B via dividends & buybacks; reaffirmed $9B total return goal for 2025 | Returned $2.7B to shareholders | Returned $2.3B; pace of buybacks accelerated | Returned $2.2B; confident in long-term capital return plan |
Outlook | Maintains FY25 production guidance 1.91–1.95M boe/d; capex unchanged at ~$11B | 2025 production and capex unchanged | Increased FY24 production midpoint by 30M boe | Maintained full-year targets despite volatility |
Strategy & Focus | Highlighted flexibility under tariff uncertainty; portfolio prioritization underway | Emphasis on shareholder returns and low-cost supply | Balanced production growth with discipline | Positioning for long-term cost leadership |
Takeaway for Investors
ConocoPhillips delivered a solid quarter with steady production and strong capital returns, but margins were modestly pressured and guidance was held flat. The company reaffirmed its $9B shareholder return plan for the year, reflecting its capital discipline even as geopolitical and tariff risks mount. Operationally, Permian and global LNG projects remain key pillars, and management continues to lean on portfolio optimization and buybacks to deliver value. Investors may view COP as a relative safe harbor in a volatile energy tape, but upside may depend on commodity pricing and fiscal policy clarity.