Sector Snapshot 

Sector Synopsis
Markets remain in flux. Airlines and banks outperformed on solid earnings while semis and software lagged on tariff fallout. Retail and autos remain sensitive to pricing and trade chatter. Macro data and Washington’s next tariff move will shape sentiment into month-end.

Autos
Auto stocks were mixed. Autoliv (ALV) beat on Q1 earnings and reaffirmed guidance. Hertz (HTZ) jumped after Pershing Square disclosed a stake. Tesla (TSLA) fell on weak California registration data. Target (TGT) was downgraded at Goldman Sachs on macro and tariff concerns, while Movado (MOV) gained on solid Q4 sales and margin improvement.

Retail, Consumer Staples & Restaurants
Retailers faced renewed macro pressure. Target was cut at Goldman Sachs, citing tariff risks and soft discretionary trends. Movado outperformed, aided by stronger margins and price hikes. Restaurant traffic trends remain negative—Deutsche Bank trimmed estimates across its coverage (MCD, CMG, YUM), citing weak Q1 foot traffic.

Transport, Leisure, Gaming & Lodging
United Airlines (UAL) beat on Q1 EPS, maintained full-year targets, and lowered capex. J.B. Hunt (JBHT) saw profit decline, but intermodal outperformed. Union Pacific (UNP) was upgraded on volume and cost progress. CSX beat Q1 expectations on EPS and revenue and noted gains in merchandise and coal volumes, though intermodal volumes were down. Management emphasized continued focus on pricing discipline and operating efficiency amid macro pressure. Lyft (LYFT) announced a $197M acquisition of European taxi platform FreeNow. Needham lowered estimates for FLUT and PENN in gaming.

Banks, Brokers, Asset Managers
Interactive Brokers (IBKR) missed on EPS and NII despite strength in trading volumes and accounts. Travelers (TRV) beat big on EPS despite heavy catastrophe losses. Mortgage REITs saw target cuts at JPMorgan, which flagged rising recession risks and macro drag. Progressive (PGR) reported solid Q1 premiums.

Biotech & Pharma
The White House moved to realign Medicare pricing timelines for biologics and small molecules—impacting future R&D strategy. RSV vaccine guidance expected soon from CDC. Abbott (ABT) beat on Q1 EPS and reaffirmed full-year outlook. Boston Scientific (BSX) was upgraded on upside potential for its Watchman device and easing competition. Sartorius (SOAGY) posted strong Q1 results, lifting other life sciences names.

Industrials, Aerospace & Defense
Morgan Stanley shifted ratings across machinery and defense: CAT and URI upgraded; AGCO, PCAR downgraded. Lockheed Martin (LMT) became the top pick in defense. Trump administration's rare earth executive order boosted TMC and MP. Siemens Energy raised its full-year forecast.

Materials, Metals & Mining
Ecolab (ECL) was downgraded on softer industrial data. U.S. Steel (X) was downgraded despite higher price floors. Rare earths rebounded on Trump’s executive order calling for a review of critical mineral supply chains and domestic production.

Technology
ASML bookings missed, citing uncertainty from tariffs. AMD and Nvidia (NVDA) fell on export restrictions and revenue exposure to China. Barclays cut targets across the chip sector. Lyft acquired FreeNow. In advertising, Omnicom (OMC) beat on EPS, but margins declined. Wipro (WIT) gave soft guidance, dragging INFY and CTSH. Cybersecurity firms face mixed demand signals.

Semiconductors
Export restrictions hit Nvidia (NVDA), AMD, and MU, especially on AI-related chips to China. Nvidia warned of a $5.5B Q2 charge. Barclays modeled 4–6% revenue hits under moderate tariffs, and up to 12% under dire scenarios.

Featured Articles

The Calm is Over
Volatility is creeping back. The post-COVID stretch of ultra-calm markets has ended as geopolitical and policy uncertainty rises.
Read more – WSJ

Shipping Deal Faces Pushback
Shipping executives are discussing ways to separate Panama port operations from a pending Hutchison Ports deal to avoid regulatory entanglements.
Read more – WSJ

Coinbase Faces Fresh Scrutiny
Coinbase received regulatory notice for a crypto accounting practice previously flagged by MarketWatch. The SEC's involvement raises pressure on crypto compliance.
Read more – MarketWatch

Housing Bubble Flashbacks
Three questionable mortgage lending tactics from 2008 are reportedly making a quiet comeback. Analysts are watching closely for systemic risk.
Read more – MarketWatch

Target Downgraded
Goldman Sachs downgraded Target, citing macro volatility and uncertainty around tariff impact on consumer spending.
Read more – CNBC

Analyst Favorites & Fades
Wednesday's top Wall Street analyst calls include downgrades on NVDA and upgrades on select defense names.
Read more – CNBC

Ford Considers Price Hike
Ford is weighing summer price increases on vehicles if tariffs don’t ease, citing cost pressures across its supply chain.
Read more – Bloomberg

Inside the Earnings Call - CSX

Q1 FY2025 Earnings Call Summary

Theme

Q1 FY2025

Q4 FY2024

Q3 FY2024

Q2 FY2024

Volume

Flat overall, mixed by segment

Up slightly, led by intermodal

Volume declines, esp. coal

Softness in autos and forest

Pricing

Strength in merchandise/intermodal

Held firm, particularly in coal

Mixed; weak in export markets

Positive pricing offset weak vols

Operating Ratio

61.4%, better than expected

60.5%, improved sequentially

63.2%, pressured by costs

62.7%, resilient vs peers

Cost Discipline

Effective mgmt. of labor/fuel

Lower T&E, improved productivity

Challenged by labor/inflation

Focus on labor productivity

Capex

Steady at ~$2.3B for year

Affirmed capex outlook

Investment in network efficiency

Infrastructure investments

Guidance & Tone

Cautiously optimistic, volume guide maintained

Confident on margin expansion

More cautious, macro sensitivity

Stable, watching tariff exposure

Tariff Impact

Creating customer uncertainty

Minimal commentary

Growing concern in auto/chemicals

Still developing in conversations

Takeaway for Investors

CSX is managing through a volatile macro landscape with solid pricing, margin discipline, and improved operations. While volumes remain flat and coal weak, the company is protecting profitability and service quality, investing through the cycle, and maintaining guidance despite tariff noise. The business appears positioned for leverage if industrial activity picks up in the back half of the year.

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