Google Scores | Pentagon Warns | IPO Stalls | $4.9T Deals

Futures are leaning higher. Not euphoria. Anticipation.

Dow futures are up. S&P and Nasdaq futures are modestly higher. The tone suggests a firmer open, building on yesterday’s comeback.

But let’s be clear about what’s doing the lifting.

That is where attention sits.

Now contrast that with what’s underneath.

Workday is down sharply on softer guidance. 

Capital is rotating inside tech, not leaving it. Chips and infrastructure still draw bids. Application software faces scrutiny. Positioning remains pro-AI, but selective toward earnings visibility over long-duration narratives.

Meanwhile, the 10-year yield inches higher near 4.06%. The dollar is quiet.

Overnight, tariffs stayed at 10%, not 15%. The President’s speech leaned optimistic. No fresh shock. That removes one immediate overhang.

The tape wants to build. But it wants confirmation. Nvidia delivers that, or complicates it, after the close.

All eyes are on Nvidia, but the real tell will be breadth.

If chips lead and software follows, risk appetite broadens. If gains stay narrow, institutions are still hiding in megacap infrastructure.

Workday’s stumble shows how little patience exists for soft guidance.

This tape rewards proof, not promise.

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You used to get points for trying AI. 

Now you get scored on it.

In tech, this isn’t optional anymore. Managers are tracking usage. Reviews now ask how you used it. Promotions quietly favor the people who lean in.

This isn’t culture. It’s enforcement.

Workforce Shift

Encouragement turned into incentives. Incentives turned into measurement.

That changes the mood inside companies. Curiosity turns into pressure. Pressure turns into output targets. If your workflow doesn’t improve, questions follow.

And here’s the part that matters. When AI use is tied to promotions, productivity stops being theoretical. It becomes visible. It becomes ranked.

Productivity is now a management metric, not a tech experiment. If output rises, margins widen. If it doesn’t, headcount becomes the adjustment valve.

This is how the AI cycle hits earnings: higher output per engineer, faster product cycles, fewer support hires, and eventual margin leverage.

Jamie Dimon said it straight. AI is already moving people around inside JPMorgan.

Headcount looks flat at first glance. Dig one layer deeper and you see the shift. 

Fewer operations staff. More revenue roles. Same building. Different seating chart.

This isn’t theory. It’s happening now.

Role Shuffle

AI boosts output per worker. Management responds. Roles move.

Dimon calls it “redeployment.” That’s not a layoff headline. It’s a cost reset. The bank keeps the talent but points it toward revenue instead of processing.

That should catch your attention. When a systemically important bank shifts its mix without cutting total staff, it shows something important. Flat headcount with rising productivity is margin expansion without a layoff headline.

AI is already changing cost structure inside major banks. Quietly.

If productivity rises, margins follow. If it stalls, redeployment turns into reduction.

Corporate America isn’t waiting for clarity. It’s moving people now.

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This year was supposed to be a parade. Now it feels like a pause.

Bankers lined up tech deals. Private equity firms dusted off roadshows. Then AI anxiety hit software stocks, and the mood shifted fast.

When public comps wobble, IPO math gets messy. And messy math delays listings.

Deal Stall

Here’s the sequence. Public software drops. Valuations reset. Boards hesitate. Bankers tell clients to wait.

The giants still have gravity. SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic will draw capital. Everyone wants a seat there. But mid-tier software doesn’t get that benefit.

When three-quarters of last year’s tech IPOs trade below issue, investors get selective. They want visibility, not hope.

Capital is flowing to chips and infrastructure. It is cautious on application software.

Mega-offerings may clear with ease. Smaller names face a harder road.

AI excitement funds chips and infrastructure. AI uncertainty compresses application software multiples, where durability is harder to model.

This isn’t a policy panel. It’s a standoff.

The Pentagon gave Anthropic a deadline: open the model wider, or face consequences. 

Not next quarter. By Friday. 

This stopped being a safety debate. It’s now about control.

Control Clash

First comes the request. Then the pressure. Then the legal lever appears.

Anthropic isn’t blinking. That’s notable. The company already holds classified access. Replacing it isn’t simple. This is a single-vendor situation. And that gives the firm leverage, at least for now.

But the bigger shift sits above the contract. When Washington considers forcing model access, AI stops being a tech product. It becomes national infrastructure.

This is about sovereign control of frontier AI. Not just usage policy.

Regulatory risk now sits beside compute risk, and both carry valuation consequences for frontier labs.

If the government pulls the DPA trigger, every frontier lab has to rethink its guardrails and its exposure.

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Last year, CEOs couldn’t sign papers fast enough. 

This year, they’re still signing, but they’re counting every dollar twice.

Deal value hit records. Boards want scale. AI made everyone nervous about being left behind. That urgency hasn’t faded. The cash cushion has.

So now the tone is different. Ambition is high. Balance sheets are tighter.

Deal Tension

Rate cuts restored confidence. Confidence fueled fear of missing out. That drove big transactions.

Now AI spending absorbs capital. Data centers, chips, energy, they aren’t cheap. When hyperscalers spend hundreds of millions a day on AI infrastructure, that capital is not available for discretionary acquisitions.

Private equity steps in. Private credit fills gaps. Sovereign funds take larger roles. But even they are selective.

Boards still want reinvention. They just can’t fund every idea.

AI is accelerating consolidation. That part is clear.

But funding is no longer casual. Every deal must show real return.

Scale wins. Stories without cash backing don’t.

Step back from the tape.

Futures are higher. Software is split. Nvidia holds the spotlight. Yields are stable. Tariffs did not escalate overnight.

This is not a stressed market. It’s a market under evaluation.

Capital remains committed to the AI buildout. The difference now is selectivity and earnings discipline. Investors are rewarding clear demand and punishing soft guidance.

Mega-cap platforms can still command attention. Mid-tier software must earn it.

What matters today isn’t whether the open is green. It’s whether conviction expands beyond a few names after earnings.

That’s the real test.