Jackson Hole, GLP-1, and Grid Scarcity — The Big 3

The S&P 500 closed flat Monday as traders held fire before Powell's Friday speech. The real question isn't what he'll say about rates—it's whether markets can hold these levels if he pushes back on September cut expectations.

Meanwhile, Ukraine drama continues with Zelensky lobbying Trump directly. But here's the thing: geopolitical headlines have barely moved markets this year. Oil's flat, defense stocks aren't popping, and the VIX is still under 15. Either investors are numb to the news or they're not pricing in real escalation risk.

The setup: Markets love to fake out before Fed speeches. Don't chase the initial move—wait 30 minutes after Powell starts talking to see if institutions are actually repositioning or just algos having a seizure.

→ Read the full Jackson Hole market preview on Business Insider

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Novo Nordisk shares surged after the FDA gave Wegovy the green light for treating liver disease — a move that CNBC says added $25 billion in market cap overnight. At the same time, Novo slashed the out-of-pocket price of Ozempic to $499/month, a rare price reset that Bloomberg calls a shot across the bow of every rival in the GLP-1 space. Analysts argue the dual play — approval plus pricing — could reshape how payors, patients, and competitors approach the category. And if you want to see which tickers MarketWatch thinks could be the surprise winners, it’s worth a closer read.

Investor Takeaway: This isn’t just another FDA headline. It’s a volume + margin story that could spark a GLP-1 price war. Watch NVO against LLY this week — relative performance may be the tell on whether Novo’s bold move forces rivals to blink first.

OpenAI chief Sam Altman is throwing a little cold water on the trade, cautioning that parts of the AI market look “well ahead of fundamentals.” The money is still flooding in—especially to data and compute build-outs—but Altman’s remarks hint at a coming shakeout between story stocks and real revenue engines. If you want the exact phrasing and context from his interview, read CNBC’s recap and pull quotes.

Reality Check: When the face of Gen-AI says “froth,” allocators listen. But history is littered with false bubble calls. Treat this as a sorting signal, not a fire drill: cash flows, customer retention, and unit economics usually decide who survives the hype cycle.

→ What exactly Altman said, and why it could reshape AI stock picking this quarter

→ The tell to watch next: how funding shifts between app-layer hype and compute infrastructure

Terawulf shares ripped higher after Google disclosed a stake tied to data center expansion. It’s a rare move that CNBC says signals hyperscalers are no longer content to just lease space—they’re buying into the grid itself. For smaller players like Terawulf, the backing provides capital, credibility, and a wedge into the AI compute land grab.

Positioning Tip: Energy-linked AI infrastructure is morphing into a hot sub-sector. Exposure here can act as a levered play on both AI demand and U.S. grid stress — a double tailwind if power markets tighten.

→ Why Google’s bet on Terawulf could mark a turning point in hyperscaler strategy

→ The overlooked angle: how grid scarcity may drive the next wave of AI infrastructure M&A

A new study finds that many financial advisers consistently clip gains too early—leaving performance on the table. One firm says it built guardrails to fight that impulse. If you want the playbook they used and the evidence behind it, MarketWatch walks through the bias, the backtests, and the fix.

Investor Angle: This isn’t just an adviser problem. Retail and pros alike struggle with the same two killers: cutting winners and riding losers. Systems beat moods.

→ The specific rule set that helped one firm stop clipping its best performers

→ See the evidence: how much alpha early selling has cost, and how to plug the leak

Members club operator Soho House is nearing a deal to go private after a rocky stint in the public markets. The brand that once drew hype for its exclusivity has been weighed down by high debt loads, slowing growth, and a fickle member base. The Wall Street Journal says private equity is circling precisely because those “flaws” look more manageable behind closed doors.

Macro Watch: Another reminder that capital markets remain selective. Soho House’s likely buyout underscores how private capital is repositioning: scooping up public misfires where leverage and churn are tough to stomach under quarterly reporting, but more palatable in a private structure. The question is whether this is the start of a broader exit wave for lifestyle and consumer names, or just a niche deal reflecting valuation distress.

→ Why private equity thinks Soho House works better in the shadows than under Wall Street’s glare

→ Could this be the first domino? The case for a broader take-private trend in consumer and lifestyle brands

Markets are trading near record highs, but momentum faces key tests. Housing data will show whether higher borrowing costs are cooling the sector or if pent-up demand is holding firm. FOMC minutes will clarify whether policymakers are truly ready to pivot in September. And Jackson Hole will dominate the back half of the week, with Powell’s words carrying the weight to reset expectations heading into fall.

Actionable Setups to Consider

What Could Flip the Script