Markets Defy Shutdown | Pharma Surges on TrumpRx | Intel’s Whisper Talks With AMD

Markets climbed Wednesday despite Washington’s shutdown and a jarring miss in private hiring. 

The S&P 500 gained 0.4%, the Nasdaq 0.5%, and the Dow 0.2%, with both the S&P and Nasdaq setting fresh intraday highs. It was a reminder that momentum, and not headlines, still rules the tape.

The ADP report showed employers cut 32,000 jobs in September, against forecasts for a solid gain. 

Normally, traders would wait for confirmation from Friday’s payrolls report. But with the Bureau of Labor Statistics dark under the shutdown, investors are forced to take private data at face value. 

That turns a flawed indicator into the only compass available, and in markets, flying blind often leads to sharper turns.

Pharma was the day’s standout. 

Pfizer surged on tariff exemptions tied to Trump’s new TrumpRx platform, its biggest jump in four years. Merck, Eli Lilly, and Moderna followed, with ripples reaching AstraZeneca and GSK abroad. 

In a market dominated by AI and tech narratives, health care reminded investors that policy shifts can still move entire sectors overnight.

Safe havens also spoke: gold held near $3,900, Treasuries rallied with the 10-year at 4.11%, and the dollar slid toward its steepest annual drop in more than two decades. Oil dipped below $62 a barrel, signaling demand worries layered on top of shutdown anxiety.

Investor Signal

Markets are looking through the shutdown itself, but not its consequences. With no payrolls report, the Fed will be leaning on patchier data, and that raises the risk of overreaction to every release. 

Traders are keeping the rally alive through tech momentum and rate-cut bets, yet the breadth is narrowing and hedges are quietly building. The takeaway: the market can climb without clarity, but every step higher makes the footing more fragile.

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Intel has been fighting uphill battles on nearly every front: losing AI accelerator share to Nvidia, lagging far behind TSMC in foundry scale, and stumbling through repeated delays in its own manufacturing roadmap. 

Billions are being poured into new fabs in Arizona and Ohio, with Washington subsidies under the CHIPS Act helping foot the bill. 

But utilization remains a glaring concern, and investors have doubted whether Intel’s foundry pivot can ever truly take hold.

Against that backdrop, reports surfaced Wednesday that Intel is in early talks to manufacture chips for longtime rival AMD. 

The mere possibility sent Intel’s stock higher, suggesting that outside demand could finally help fill its fabs and lend credibility to its strategy shift.

Investor Signal

If these discussions evolve into actual business, Intel could secure a credible third-party anchor client and a steadier revenue stream for its foundry unit, offsetting the cost of catching up with TSMC. 

For AMD, outsourcing some production to Intel would diversify supply away from Asia, a move with both geopolitical and operational appeal. 

The economics, however, are thin: foundry margins are slim, and Intel would be walking a tightrope by enabling a competitor while defending its own product lines. For investors, this is less a guaranteed turnaround than a signal that Intel is leaving no stone unturned to revive confidence in its long-term plan.

The U.S. government is stepping deeper into critical minerals. The Energy Department announced it will take a 5% equity stake in Lithium Americas and its Nevada-based Thacker Pass mine, restructuring a $2.26 billion federal loan agreed to last year. 

With lithium prices down sharply, the project’s financing had grown shaky; the new deal injects more than $100 million of equity and is framed as protecting taxpayers while ensuring the mine gets built.

Thacker Pass is one of the largest known lithium deposits in the U.S. and a linchpin in efforts to reduce dependence on China, which dominates global battery production. 

Once operational, the site is expected to produce 40,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate annually, supplying EVs, smartphones, and grid-scale storage.

The move underscores how Washington is shifting its industrial policy.

Loans and subsidies are giving way to direct ownership. Officials already secured a “golden share” in U.S. Steel during Nippon Steel’s takeover, negotiated revenue-linked terms on AI chip exports with Nvidia and AMD, and taken a 15% stake in rare-earths miner MP Materials. 

Lithium Americas now joins the list of companies where the federal government isn’t just lender or regulator, but shareholder.

Investor Signal

Shares of Lithium Americas surged more than 30% on the news, reflecting relief that financing risks have eased. But the government’s seat at the table raises questions. 

While projects gain steadier backing, private investors must weigh political risk and whether future returns will be diluted when Washington is both co-investor and overseer of strategic supply chains.

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Microsoft has taken the wraps off a premium version of its 365 suite, embedding AI Copilot into Word, Excel, PowerPoint, and Teams. 

What began as a buzzy demo is now a paid subscription product, the company’s clearest attempt yet to turn its multi-billion dollar bet on OpenAI into recurring revenue.

The rollout comes after months of investor pressure to prove that AI can move beyond hype.

Microsoft stock has surged this year on AI optimism, but critics note adoption of Copilot has been uneven and enterprise deployment slower than promised. 

With productivity software as its cornerstone business, Microsoft needs AI to move from novelty to daily workflow to justify its premium valuation.

Investor Signal

This launch is less about short-term pricing power and more about reinforcing Microsoft’s moat. By hard-wiring AI into the tools businesses already depend on, the company is creating stickier customers and a clearer revenue stream linked to its OpenAI partnership. 

Investors have been questioning whether AI can be monetized beyond cloud infrastructure. If adoption takes hold, Copilot could shift perception, from costly experiment to growth driver, much like Office and Azure before it.

Netflix shares slipped Wednesday after Elon Musk announced he canceled his subscription, joining conservative calls for a boycott of the streaming platform. 

The trigger was renewed controversy over the animated series Dead End: Paranormal Park, accused by critics of promoting transgender themes. 

Screenshots circulated online showed the show’s creator criticizing U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer over comments on the assassination of right-wing activist Charlie Kirk, though the authenticity of those posts remains unverified.

The episode underscores a broader trend: corporate brands being dragged into political battles. 

In 2023, Bud Light sales cratered after a promotion with transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney. That same year, Target shares fell sharply amid backlash to its Pride merchandise. Now, with Musk’s massive online following amplifying the message, Netflix finds itself in the same crossfire.

Investor Signal

The immediate stock reaction was modest, down about 2%, in line with broader market weakness tied to the shutdown. 

But Musk’s involvement raises the risk that a fringe controversy snowballs into mainstream traction, potentially affecting subscriber trends if it lingers. For investors, the real question isn’t whether Netflix weathers this storm in the short term, but whether recurring cultural flashpoints become a structural overhang on its long-term valuation.Paste content here

Leon Cooperman, the billionaire investor who turned Omega Advisors into a family office, has watched more than a few bull markets morph from euphoria into collapse. 

On Wednesday he reached for Warren Buffett’s famous 1999 warning: the most dangerous stage is when investors buy not on fundamentals, but because it feels wrong to be out. 

In Cooperman’s view, that’s where markets stand today, with AI names trading at what he calls “ridiculously high” valuations.

The numbers back the concern. The S&P 500 has surged nearly 40% since April, pushing the Buffett Indicator — total market cap to GDP — to 217%. 

That’s well beyond dot-com or pandemic peaks. It’s also the definition of “greater fool” territory, where each buyer counts on someone else stepping in at an even higher price.

Investor Signal

Cooperman isn’t urging investors to abandon stocks altogether. He still prefers equities over bonds, noting inflation’s erosion of fixed-income returns. 

But his caution is sharp: when valuations stretch this far, the balance tilts against you. At this stage of the cycle, the greater fool may not be out there, so don’t let it be you.

Markets pushed higher today even as the ground under them looked less certain. A shutdown has blinded the Fed, jobs data is turning patchier, and gold is flashing safe-haven signals.

Pharma stocks reminded investors that policy shifts can still move entire sectors overnight, while Microsoft’s AI rollout underscored how big tech is racing to prove that hype can become habit. 

Intel is whispering with AMD, Washington is buying into lithium, and Cooperman is warning that valuations are drifting into greater-fool territory. 

The common thread: conviction is colliding with fragility. Momentum is alive, but so are the cracks — in data, in valuations, and in politics. At this stage of the cycle, investors don’t just need signals; they need discernment.

For a deeper look at Cooperman’s warning and what Buffett’s 1999 playbook suggests now, see CNBC’s full interview.